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Post  lynk2510 Tue Jun 21, 2011 2:57 am



What to watch:

-- Any sign that a broader national protest movement is emerging out of local disputes. So far, this seems unlikely.

-- Territorial disputes in the South China Sea. This issue is highly charged in Vietnam, where suspicion of China runs deep.

-- The role of the Catholic church. Catholics have engaged in periodic protests over church land taken over by the government after 1954. The Church, while officially shunning politics, has 6-7 million followers in Vietnam and is well organised.

-- Volatile commodity prices. Reports have emerged of coffee farmers who made losses when bean distributors went broke ransacking their buying agents' homes and businesses. High world commodity prices will also fuel inflation.



Doing battle against inflation

The Economist 5 May 2011



TO HONOUR the dead, the Vietnamese sometimes burn fake banknotes, made out of “votive paper”, for the deceased to spend on the other side. Vietnam’s government recently complained that this votive money looked too similar to the real thing. Unfortunately the resemblance runs deeper than that. Over the past year the value of Vietnam’s official currency—the dong—has been steadily going up in smoke. Consumer prices rose by 17.5% in the year to April, outstripped only in Ethiopia and Venezuela. The dong has been devalued against the dollar six times since June 2008 (see chart). The Vietnamese have flocked to more reliable stores of value. Those hoping to salvage their savings from the ashes can buy 37.5-gram bars of fine gold, embossed with a Phoenix, from the Phu Nhuan Jewelry Store. Above one Hanoi branch, a digital display shows the price: 38,170,000 dong. There is space only for the first five digits.



But Vietnam’s government seems newly determined to douse the inflationary fires. On May 4th the country’s central bank, the State Bank of Vietnam, raised one of its key rates to 14%, the latest in a flurry of increases since February. Its campaign was accompanied by a package of commitments to tighten money and credit, cut the budget deficit and rein in the country’s state-owned enterprises. Known as Resolution 11, this package is meant to show that the government is no longer torn between fighting inflation and fanning the recovery. The phrase “economic growth” did not appear in the decree. At the annual mee
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lynk2510


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Join date : 2011-03-22

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