I think that economics definitely had something to do with
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I think that economics definitely had something to do with
lynk2510 Thu Jun 30, 2011 3:40 am
mese people.
In Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's biggest city, hundreds of protesters vented their anger in front of Chinese diplomatic missions Sunday. Holding up signs with such messages as "China must stop acts of aggression!" the crowds boisterously chanted anti-China slogans under a heavy security presence. A university student who joined the protest in Hanoi said he had heard about the demonstration on the Internet. "I came here to lash out at China," he said. One message online said, "We have driven aggressors out of our country many times...and all generations should take up arms [to fight Chinese aggression]."
Under the Vietnamese Communist Party, street demonstrations unauthorized by the government are strictly banned--as they are in China. Vietnamese authorities this time, however, apparently gave tacit approval to the protests. The outpouring of anger comes at a time of high inflation in Vietnam. Prices of food and other goods have risen about 15 percent since the beginning of the year, stirring discontent among the people. The Vietnamese government appears to have calculated this dissatisfaction could shake the regime's foundations, and could be heightened if it took a conciliatory stance toward China that might inflame nationalistic feelings among the people. Vietnam and China both face simmering discontent due to widening economic disparities among their populace. The confrontational stances taken by Vietnam and China toward each other appears to be the flipside of their domestic situations.
The modern history of the South China Sea is characterized by conflicts between Vietnam and China. In 1974, during the Vietnam War, the Chinese military drove South Vietnamese troops out of the Paracel Islands, which are claimed by Beijing and Hanoi. Armed conflict that erupted in 1988 over the Spratly Islands left more than 100 Vietnamese and Chinese troops killed or missing. Former Vietnam Border Committee Chairman Tran Cong Truc said China was testing Vietnam's reaction to the recent flareup, and warned China would become more aggressive in the South China Sea if Vietnam sat idly by.
Weighing the Cost-Benefit of War
By Michael Martin International Business Times 15 June 2011
In the recent skirmish over the South China Sea, both China and Vietnam are unclear about how much they stand to gain from the water space, but the potential costs are calculable, analysts say. Just how much oil is beneath the South China Sea's is unknown. Some Chinese sources estimate it's over 200 billion barrels, roughly 80 percent of Saudia Arabia's oil reserves, but others say that's an extreme exaggeration.
The benefits maybe unclear, but Beijing can calculate how much its mounting face-off with Vietnam over the sea space would cost the Chinese economy. At face value, the price tag is US $12.7 billion-- the amount of Vietnam's trade deficit with China in 2010, according to Vietnam's General Statistics Office. That's seven percent of China's trade surplus from last year, a small but significant chunk of the country's earnings. Still, analysts say all-out war would mean a much more complicated calculation of losses.
Responding to the six-hour-long live-fire drills Vietnam conducted in the South China Sea-- one hour for each of the countries and territories laying claim on the waters, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Lei announced that China "won't use force" to respond to what it sees as offensives in an area where the People's Republic claims to have "indisputable sovereignty."
"I think that economics definitely had something to do with the announcement," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at the IHS Global Insight, a leader in economic analysis, on call from London. It has growing trade links with all Asian economies, especially the countries interested in Spratly," Behravesh said, referring to the disputed islands off China and Vietnam's shared coastline. Analysts believe that despite the ongoing deluge of strongly worded condemnations, accusing Vietnam of threatening Chinese autonomy in the region, China is likely to stand by its promise of detente.
bergamot
hotmail
In Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's biggest city, hundreds of protesters vented their anger in front of Chinese diplomatic missions Sunday. Holding up signs with such messages as "China must stop acts of aggression!" the crowds boisterously chanted anti-China slogans under a heavy security presence. A university student who joined the protest in Hanoi said he had heard about the demonstration on the Internet. "I came here to lash out at China," he said. One message online said, "We have driven aggressors out of our country many times...and all generations should take up arms [to fight Chinese aggression]."
Under the Vietnamese Communist Party, street demonstrations unauthorized by the government are strictly banned--as they are in China. Vietnamese authorities this time, however, apparently gave tacit approval to the protests. The outpouring of anger comes at a time of high inflation in Vietnam. Prices of food and other goods have risen about 15 percent since the beginning of the year, stirring discontent among the people. The Vietnamese government appears to have calculated this dissatisfaction could shake the regime's foundations, and could be heightened if it took a conciliatory stance toward China that might inflame nationalistic feelings among the people. Vietnam and China both face simmering discontent due to widening economic disparities among their populace. The confrontational stances taken by Vietnam and China toward each other appears to be the flipside of their domestic situations.
The modern history of the South China Sea is characterized by conflicts between Vietnam and China. In 1974, during the Vietnam War, the Chinese military drove South Vietnamese troops out of the Paracel Islands, which are claimed by Beijing and Hanoi. Armed conflict that erupted in 1988 over the Spratly Islands left more than 100 Vietnamese and Chinese troops killed or missing. Former Vietnam Border Committee Chairman Tran Cong Truc said China was testing Vietnam's reaction to the recent flareup, and warned China would become more aggressive in the South China Sea if Vietnam sat idly by.
Weighing the Cost-Benefit of War
By Michael Martin International Business Times 15 June 2011
In the recent skirmish over the South China Sea, both China and Vietnam are unclear about how much they stand to gain from the water space, but the potential costs are calculable, analysts say. Just how much oil is beneath the South China Sea's is unknown. Some Chinese sources estimate it's over 200 billion barrels, roughly 80 percent of Saudia Arabia's oil reserves, but others say that's an extreme exaggeration.
The benefits maybe unclear, but Beijing can calculate how much its mounting face-off with Vietnam over the sea space would cost the Chinese economy. At face value, the price tag is US $12.7 billion-- the amount of Vietnam's trade deficit with China in 2010, according to Vietnam's General Statistics Office. That's seven percent of China's trade surplus from last year, a small but significant chunk of the country's earnings. Still, analysts say all-out war would mean a much more complicated calculation of losses.
Responding to the six-hour-long live-fire drills Vietnam conducted in the South China Sea-- one hour for each of the countries and territories laying claim on the waters, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Lei announced that China "won't use force" to respond to what it sees as offensives in an area where the People's Republic claims to have "indisputable sovereignty."
"I think that economics definitely had something to do with the announcement," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at the IHS Global Insight, a leader in economic analysis, on call from London. It has growing trade links with all Asian economies, especially the countries interested in Spratly," Behravesh said, referring to the disputed islands off China and Vietnam's shared coastline. Analysts believe that despite the ongoing deluge of strongly worded condemnations, accusing Vietnam of threatening Chinese autonomy in the region, China is likely to stand by its promise of detente.
bergamot
hotmail
lynk2510
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